Guides · Betting picks
An esports pick is a bet someone else recommends. It is only worth following if the tipster's picks win more often than the odds imply, by enough to cover any fee. At odds of 1.90 that means winning more than 52.6% of the time over hundreds of picks.
This guide shows how to check a tipster's record with simple maths, why a short winning run proves little, and the signs of a picks site that is selling hope rather than an edge.
Short answer
Only if they beat the price over a large sample. A tipster at average odds of 1.90 must win 52.6% of picks to break even. At 55% the return is +4.5% of stakes; on $2,000 a month that is $90, which a $50 subscription cuts to $40 before any losing run.
Win rate vs odds
Expected result per $100 staked, for a tipster's real win rate at the odds they post.
EV = win rate × odds − 1
0.55 × 1.90 − 1 = +4.5%
| Your chance | Odds | The odds' chance | Value per $100 | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | 1.90 | 52.6% | +$4 | a good record if it holds over hundreds of picks |
| 53% | 1.90 | 52.6% | +$1 | barely profitable; a fee wipes it out |
| 60% | 1.60 | 62.5% | −$4 | a high hit rate on favourites can still lose |
| 40% | 2.80 | 35.7% | +$12 | a low hit rate on underdogs can still win |
Example win rates. Judge a tipster on return per stake, never on hit rate alone.
Worked checks
A record needs date, match, market, odds and stake for every pick, published before the match. Screenshots of winning slips prove nothing.
After 100 picks at 55%, the true rate could be anywhere from about 45% to 65% (95% range, ±9.7 points). You need several hundred picks before a 55% record means much.
A $50 a month service on $10 stakes and 100 picks a month needs +5% return just to cover the fee. Few tipsters sustain that.
If a pick was posted at 2.00 but you can only get 1.85 by the time you see it, the return is 7.5% lower. Popular tips move the price.
Patterns & exceptions
What it means: compare return per stake; a tipster who wins 60% of picks on favourites can still lose money.
What it means: 95% range around a 55% win rate; only hundreds of picks narrow it enough to judge.
Responsible gambling
Fixed-match offers, guaranteed picks and tipsters who ask for your betting account login are scams. Match-fixing offers can also involve crime.
Our responsible gaming policyLicensed sites check age and ID before you can withdraw. If you are under 18, or under the legal age where you live, this site is for information only.
Our responsible gaming policyDecide what a month of betting may cost and set a deposit limit in your account. Never top up to chase a loss.
Gambling addiction helpIf betting stops being fun, talk to someone. Gambling Therapy runs free, confidential support online in many languages.
Gambling TherapyRecommended bets from a tipster or a site, usually with the market, the odds and sometimes a stake. They can be free or paid.
Not by default. A fee only makes sense if the tipster's verified return per stake is higher than the fee as a share of your stakes.
More than 1 ÷ average odds. At 1.90 that is 52.6%, at 2.50 it is 40%. See how esports odds work.
Several hundred. After 100 picks a 55% record is still consistent with a true rate near 45%.
Guaranteed wins, fixed-match offers, no full record with odds, pressure to pay fast and requests for your account details.
Selling or sharing tips is generally legal where betting is legal. Betting on them is subject to the same age and licensing rules as any bet.
