Series chance after map 1
What it means: the price after map 1 matters more than the price before the match.
Guides · Live betting
Live (in-play) betting lets you bet while a match is on, at odds that update after rounds, kills and maps. In a best-of-three the biggest move comes after map 1: a team that wins it goes from about 65% to 84% in our example.
This guide shows how those swings follow from a team's map win rate, what bet delays and suspended markets mean, and why live margins are usually higher than before the match.
Short answer
You bet during the match on markets that stay open between rounds or maps. Odds update with the score: if a team that wins 60% of maps takes map 1 of a best-of-three, its series chance rises from 64.8% to 84%; if it loses map 1, it drops to 36%.
Odds swings
The team wins 60% of maps in this example. Prices shown are fair odds, before the margin.
The team needs two of three maps: 0.6² × (3 − 2 × 0.6) = 64.8%. Fair series odds 1.54.
Now it needs one of the next two maps: 1 − 0.4² = 84%. Fair odds 1.19. Backing it now pays far less than before the match.
Now it must win both remaining maps: 0.6² = 36%. Fair odds 2.78. If you think map 1 was a one-off, for example the opponent's map pick, this is where a live bet can have value.
If the team wins only 45% on the opponent's pick but 75% on its own, the 60% average hides the swing. Know the veto before you bet live.
Probability maths with an example map win rate.
Patterns & exceptions Example oddsExample data
What it means: the price after map 1 matters more than the price before the match.
What it means: on these example prices the live market keeps more per bet; you need a larger edge.
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Betting on a match after it has started, on markets such as the next map, the series winner or the next round, at odds that update during play.
Yes: prices move with the score, markets close for short periods, and margins are usually higher. You can react to what you see, but so can the bookmaker, with faster data.
Some sites stream matches or show live scoreboards. Official streams on Twitch or YouTube run with a delay, so the site's data is often ahead.
After each map the series chance is recalculated. For a team that wins 60% of maps, winning map 1 of a best-of-three lifts its chance from 64.8% to 84%; losing drops it to 36%.
On average no, because the offer includes a margin. It can make sense when your view of the match has changed, not as a habit.
Sometimes. Many offers exclude live bets or count them at a lower rate, so check the terms first. See esports free bets.