Guides · Betting strategy
A betting strategy only works if it changes the numbers: your chance against the price, the share of your bankroll on each bet and the margin you pay. Everything else is opinion about who wins.
This guide works through the three that matter in esports: betting only when your estimate beats the implied chance, staking a fixed small share of your bankroll, and taking the best price across sites. Even a good strategy loses often in the short run.
Short answer
Bet only when your own chance for a team is higher than the chance the odds imply, stake 1–2% of your bankroll per bet, and take the best price across sites. On our example match, the best price on each side cuts the margin from 5.3% on average to 2.5%.
Value
A bet has value when your probability times the odds is above 1. The table shows the expected result per $100 for a few cases.
EV = chance × odds − 1
0.58 × 1.90 − 1 = +10.2%
| Your chance | Odds | The odds' chance | Value per $100 | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58% | 1.90 | 52.6% | +$10 | your edge is clear; a value bet |
| 50% | 1.90 | 52.6% | −$5 | a coin flip at 1.90 loses about 5% on average |
| 45% | 2.40 | 41.7% | +$8 | an underdog priced too long; value despite losing more often |
| 65% | 1.45 | 69.0% | −$6 | a likely winner priced too short; no value |
Example chances. Your estimate is the hard part: write it down before you look at the odds.
Stakes
With a $500 bankroll and 2% stakes you bet $10 every time. Ten losses in a row, which happens at 50% odds about once in every thousand ten-bet runs, still leave $400.
Kelly stake = (b × p − q) ÷ b, where b is odds − 1. At 55% and odds of 1.90: (0.9 × 0.55 − 0.45) ÷ 0.9 = 5% of the bankroll. Your 55% is an estimate, so most bettors use half Kelly or less: 2.5% here.
Log odds, stake, your estimate and the closing price. If the price usually shortens after you bet, your estimates are good; if it drifts, they are not, whatever the short-run result.
Worked examples, not advice to bet.
Line shopping Example odds
| Bookmaker | Vitality | Falcons | Margin | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GG.bet | 1.62 | 2.30 | 4.9% | 95.1% |
| ThunderPick | 1.64 | 2.28 | 4.6% | 95.4% |
| 1xBet | 1.65 | 2.31 | 3.7% | 96.3% |
| BC.GAME | 1.67 | 2.30 | 3.2% | 96.8% |
| Stake.com | 1.63 | 2.34 | 3.9% | 96.1% |
| Betsson | 1.60 | 2.22 | 7.0% | 93.0% |
| Parimatch | 1.62 | 2.24 | 6.0% | 94.0% |
| 22BET | 1.64 | 2.27 | 4.8% | 95.2% |
| 20bet | 1.60 | 2.26 | 6.3% | 93.7% |
| 1win | 1.56 | 2.22 | 8.4% | 91.6% |
| Best odds per outcome | 1.67 | 2.34 | 2.5% | 97.5% |
Example odds set by the editors, not live prices.
Prices on one esports match differ between sites. Taking the best price on your side costs nothing but a second account.
What it means: the best price on each side gives a margin of 2.5%, against 5.3% on average.
Patterns & exceptions Example oddsExample data
What it means: for a team that wins 60% of maps; short odds on a favourite are riskier in a best-of-one.
What it means: on $10,000 a year in stakes the gap in the example is $513.
Responsible gambling
Licensed sites check age and ID before you can withdraw. If you are under 18, or under the legal age where you live, this site is for information only.
Our responsible gaming policyDecide what a month of betting may cost and set a deposit limit in your account. Never top up to chase a loss.
Gambling addiction helpIf betting stops being fun, talk to someone. Gambling Therapy runs free, confidential support online in many languages.
Gambling TherapyEstimate each team's chance before you look at the price, then compare with 1 ÷ odds. Bet only when yours is clearly higher. See how esports odds work.
Recent results on the current patch, the map pool and likely vetoes, roster changes and stand-ins, and the series format. Our game pages, such as CS2 betting, cover the markets per game.
1–2% per bet with flat stakes is a common rule. It keeps a losing run survivable. Never add money to win back losses.
No. Even a bettor with a real edge has long losing runs, and the margin works against everyone else. Bet only money you can afford to lose.
It can be if you watch the match and know the game, because prices move after every map. Margins on live markets are usually higher, so the edge has to be bigger. See our live betting guide.
The maths does: value, stake sizing and line shopping. Esports adds series formats, map vetoes and patches, which change team strength faster than in most sports.
