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Esports betting odds explained: formats, probability and margin

Odds are a price and a probability at once. Decimal odds of 2.00 return $20 on a $10 stake and say the bookmaker rates the chance at 50% at most. Divide 1 by the odds for both teams, add them up, and the part above 100% is what the bookmaker keeps.

This guide converts between the odds formats esports sites use, works out the margin on an example CS2 match, and shows what is different in esports: series length, map handicaps and map totals.

Example odds, not live Margin calculator 18+ only

Short answer

How do I turn esports odds into a probability?

Divide 1 by the decimal odds. Vitality at 1.62 gives 61.7% and Falcons at 2.30 gives 43.5%. Together that is 105.2%; the part above 100% is the bookmaker's mark-up, a margin of 4.9% at GG.bet in our example.

Vitality 1.62 61.7% 1 ÷ 1.62
Falcons 2.30 43.5% 1 ÷ 2.30
Sum 105.2% GG.bet, example
Margin 4.9% 1 − 1 ÷ sum

Esports odds in six numbers

  1. 1 ÷ odds

    Gives the chance the price implies. Odds of 4.00 mean 25%.

  2. 5.3%

    Average margin across ten bookmakers on the same example CS2 match.

  3. 2.5%

    The margin left if you take the best price on each team from different sites.

  4. 64.8%

    How often a team that wins 60% of maps wins a best-of-three. In a best-of-one it is 60%.

  5. 2.78

    Fair odds for −1.5 maps when a team wins 60% of maps: it must win 2–0, a 36% chance.

  6. $51

    Extra cost per $1,000 staked at the dearest site in the example compared with the cheapest.

Odds formats

The same odds in decimal, fractional and American

Decimal odds are standard on esports sites. UK-facing books also show fractions and US-facing books American odds. The format never changes the price.

Same bet, three ways to write it. 2.00, 1/1 and +100 all pay $200 back on a $100 stake.

Decimal Fractional American Probability Payout on $100 Win on $100 What it means
1.25 1/4 −400 80.0% $125 $25 heavy favourite, common for a tier-1 team against tier-2
1.50 1/2 −200 66.7% $150 $50 clear favourite
1.80 4/5 −125 55.6% $180 $80 a common minimum odds in bonus terms
2.00 1/1 +100 50.0% $200 $100 even money
2.50 6/4 +150 40.0% $250 $150 slight underdog
3.00 2/1 +200 33.3% $300 $200 wins about one time in three
5.00 4/1 +400 20.0% $500 $400 an upset, about one time in five

Converting

How to convert between odds formats

Fractional to decimal

decimal = a ÷ b + 1

6/4 → 1.5 + 1 = 2.50

Add 1 to include your stake.

American to decimal

+A: A ÷ 100 + 1

−A: 100 ÷ A + 1

−125 → 1.80

Plus shows the win on $100; minus shows what you stake to win $100.

Decimal to probability

chance = 1 ÷ decimal

1.80 → 55.6%

This chance includes the margin, so it is a little too high.

Hong Kong to decimal

decimal = HK + 1

1.50 HK → 2.50

Hong Kong odds show the profit only, as many Asian-facing books print them.

Margin Example odds

Find the margin on any esports match

Use GG.bet's example odds, or type in any two or three prices.

Outcome Odds (GG.bet, example) 1 ÷ odds Fair odds
Vitality 1.62 61.7% 1.70
Falcons 2.30 43.5% 2.42
Sum 105.2% 100.0%

Three steps

  1. Work out 1 ÷ odds for each side and add them: 105.2%.
  2. Margin = 1 − 1 ÷ sum: 4.9%.
  3. Fair odds = odds × sum: Vitality 1.70, Falcons 2.42.

What it means: on every $1,000 staked on this market the book keeps about $49 on average.

Esports specifics

Three things that make esports odds different

A team's chance per map decides its price for the whole series. These examples assume each map is independent.

  1. Series length

    A team that wins 60% of maps wins a best-of-one 60% of the time, a best-of-three 64.8% and a best-of-five 68.3%. Fair series odds fall from 1.67 to 1.54 to 1.46. Group stages often use best-of-one, where upsets are more common.

  2. Map handicap −1.5

    In a best-of-three, −1.5 maps needs a 2–0 win: the per-map chance squared. At 60% per map that is 36%, fair odds 2.78; at 70% it is 49%, fair odds 2.04. The opponent's +1.5 is the other side: 64% at 60%.

  3. Total maps over 2.5

    A best-of-three goes to a third map when the first two are split. At 60% per map the chance is 2 × 0.6 × 0.4 = 48%, fair odds 2.08; between two even teams it is 50%. The closer the teams, the more likely over 2.5.

Pure probability maths, no bookmaker data.

Compare odds Example odds

Same match, ten prices

CS2 · example match Example odds · not live
Vitality BO3 Match winner Falcons
Bookmaker VitalityFalcons Margin Payout
GG.bet 1.622.30 4.9% 95.1%
ThunderPick 1.642.28 4.6% 95.4%
1xBet 1.652.31 3.7% 96.3%
BC.GAME 1.672.30 3.2% 96.8%
Stake.com 1.632.34 3.9% 96.1%
Betsson 1.602.22 7.0% 93.0%
Parimatch 1.622.24 6.0% 94.0%
22BET 1.642.27 4.8% 95.2%
20bet 1.602.26 6.3% 93.7%
1win 1.562.22 8.4% 91.6%
Best odds per outcome 1.672.34 2.5% 97.5%

Example odds set by the editors, not live prices.

How to read the table

Each row is one bookmaker's example price on the same CS2 match. The best price per team is highlighted; the margin column runs from green (cheapest) to red (dearest).

What it means: BC.GAME keeps 3.2% and 1win 8.4%. Taking the best price on each side cuts the margin to 2.5%.

Patterns & exceptions Example oddsExample data

What decides the price you get

Bookmakers

Same match, different margin

What it means: on $5,000 a year in stakes the gap between the cheapest and dearest site in the example is $257.

Exception: a site with a higher margin can still have the best price on one team, as Stake.com does on Falcons here.
Accumulators

Margins multiply across legs

What it means: five 5% legs cost you 22.6% of the stake on average, against 5% on a single.

Exception: an accumulator boost can cover part of that cost; check the boost against the extra margin.

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Glossary

Odds terms in one place

Implied probability
The chance a price stands for: 1 ÷ decimal odds. So what: compare it with your own estimate before you bet.
Margin (vig, juice)
The share of stakes the book keeps: 1 − 1 ÷ sum of implied chances. So what: lower margin, more back on average.
Overround
The sum of implied chances above 100%, e.g. 105.2%. So what: the same mark-up as the margin, written differently.
Fair odds
Odds with the margin removed: odds × sum. So what: the price a bet would have with no mark-up.
Map handicap
A team starts with a map deficit or lead, e.g. −1.5 maps. So what: turns a short favourite into a longer price.
Line shopping
Taking the best price for your pick across several sites. So what: the easiest way to lower what each bet costs.

Esports odds FAQ

How are esports betting odds set?

Traders start from a probability for each team (form, map pool, roster, patch) and add a margin. Prices then move with the money bet and with news such as stand-ins. That is why the same match is priced differently at different sites.

Which odds format is best for esports betting?

Decimal. It includes the stake, so 1 ÷ odds gives the implied chance directly. Every format pays the same; see the conversion table above.

How do I calculate winnings from decimal odds?

Multiply stake by odds. $20 at 1.75 returns $35, which is $15 profit plus your $20 stake.