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Key takeaways
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+20%
If a roster move turns a 1.60 favourite into a real coin flip, the 2.40 underdog is worth +$20 per $100.
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2 weeks
Riot released patch 14.18 for the 2024 League of Legends Worlds on 11 September 2024, about two weeks before the event.
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Confirm
Bet on confirmed roster changes, not rumours. Check team announcements and Liquipedia.
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Show
Showmatches and exhibitions say little about real form. Teams often use them as practice.
Why offseasons move esports odds
Most esports have breaks between seasons and transfer windows when teams change players and staff. When competition resumes, the most recent data belongs to the old rosters. Pricing models and bettors both need time to learn how new lineups perform. Big events also often arrive on a fresh patch: Riot named patch 14.18 as the patch for the 2024 League of Legends World Championship and released it on 11 September 2024.
Worked example: a stale favourite
Say a team was a clear favourite before its star player left. Its first match after the move is priced 1.60, with the opponent at 2.40. If the departure really makes the match a coin flip, here is what each side is worth:
Example odds before the market adjusts
Roster news can flip a bet's value. The question is how much the move really changes the team, and whether the price already reflects it.
| Side | Odds | Real chance after the move | Value per $100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old favourite | 1.60 | 50% | −$20.00 |
| Opponent | 2.40 | 50% | +$20.00 |
Worked example with example odds. Value = real chance × odds − 1.
Offseason opportunities and their risks
Each edge comes with a risk
| Opportunity | Matching risk |
|---|---|
| Prices based on old rosters | The roster move isn't confirmed yet |
| New patch before an event | Nobody has much data on the new patch, including you |
| Fewer matches to price, more mistakes | Fewer results to judge form, too |
| Early team news | Rumours, fake leaks and deliberate misinformation |
How to bet around the offseason
- Track confirmed moves Use team announcements and Liquipedia roster pages; ignore unnamed sources.
- Note the patch Check which version the event uses and when it was released.
- Skip exhibitions Showmatches and invitationals are poor guides to real form.
- Compare bookmakers Big price differences between bookmakers show where the market is unsure.
- Lower your stakes More uncertainty calls for smaller bets until new rosters have played.
Offseason esports betting: common questions
What is the esports offseason?
The break between competitive seasons, when leagues pause and teams change players, coaches and staff. Timing varies by game and league.
How do odds behave after the offseason?
Early-season prices rely on results from old rosters, so they can be less accurate until new lineups have played several official matches.
Should I bet on roster rumours?
No. Bet only on confirmed changes from team announcements or Liquipedia. Rumours can be wrong or deliberately misleading.
Are showmatches good for judging form?
Rarely. Teams often treat them as practice and may hide strategies.
Does a new patch before a big event matter for betting?
Yes. It changes which strategies work, and results from the previous patch become less reliable.
